,Strategic marketing planning in turbulent environments: The case of Prornocast'

This article illustrates an approach to strategic marketing planning in times of rapid change. The process begins with an extensive situation analysis that pays particular attention to environmental Change coming from political, behavioural, economic, sociological, and technological sources. These environmental forces are looked at from the points of view of the company, the business ecosystem, and the infrastructure. The factors identified in the situation analysis are woven into the economic webs surrounding the new product. The webs are mapped into Bayesian networks. This involves a combination of knowledge engineering and specification of focussed research projects. The Bayesian nature of the planning document enables planners to update information as events unfold and to run scenarios that simulate the impact that changes in assumptions underlying the web have on the prospects for the new product. The method is developed around the planning for Promocestt», a statistical forecast used to support promotion planning in the grocery industry.